The Estimation of Breast Cancer Disease-Probability by Difference of Individual Susceptibility

Park, Sue Kyung; Yoo, Keun Young; Kang, Dae Hee; Ahn, Sei Hyun; Noh, Dong Young; Choe, Kuk Jin

doi:2003.35.1.35

Cancer Research and Treatment > Volume 35(1); 2003 > Article

Original Article

Cancer Research and Treatment 2003;35(1): 35-51. doi: https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2003.35.1.35

The Estimation of Breast Cancer Disease-Probability by Difference of Individual Susceptibility

Sue Kyung Park, Keun Young Yoo, Dae Hee Kang, Sei Hyun Ahn, Dong Young Noh, Kuk Jin Choe

¹Department of Preventive Medicine, Konkuk University Collegeof Medicine, Korea. suepark@kku.ac.kr
²Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National UniveristyCollege of Medicine, Korea.
³Department of General Surgery, Asan Medical Center, UlsanUniveristy College of Medicine, Korea.
⁴Department of General Surgery, Seoul National UniveristyCollege of Medicine, Korea.
⁵Institute of Medical Science, Konkuk University College ofMedicine, Korea.
⁶CRI (Cancer Research Institute), Seoul National UniveristyCollege of Medicine, Korea.

Published online: February 28, 2003.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE:
The aims were to evaluate the main risk factors (RFs) of breast cancer and to estimate the individual disease-probability from combinations of RFs in Korean female.
MATERIALS AND METHODS:
We conducted case-control study of 1, 687 incident cases of invasive carcinoma and 1, 238 controls during 1996~2000. A breast cancer disease-probability model was established by a general modeling process using a multivariate logistic regression model, which included the main Korean RFs and synergistic interaction-terms.
RESULTS:
The main Korean RFs selected were age, family history of second relatives, BMI, age at first full term pregnancy, breast-feeding, and a special test on the breasts. Two synergisms were observed between age and breast-feeding, and between special test and age at first fullterm pregnancy. The disease-probability and model are shown in Table 4, and Appendix 1.
CONCLUSION:
The availability of previous Western models was limited for Korean female due to the differences inhazard-rates and the characteristics of breast cancer between Asian and Western females. Due to limited basic data, i.e. incidence, hazard-rate and cancer-cohorts, the developing-probability of breast cancer for Korean females was not calculated. Therefore, the disease-probability was calculated instead. This approach might be more beneficial for Koreans, and help in the decision- making for regular screening or hospital visit-interval, counseling in breast-cancer clinics, prescribing high-risk population, and in educating for primary prevention, although it over-estimates the relative probability compared to the developing-probability and the 65% predictive validity.

Key words: Breast neoplasm;Risk factor;Disease-probability