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Since the revised Cancer Act of October 2006, cancer registration was reactivated, based on the Statistics Law.
The incidence of cancer during 2002 was calculated on the basis of the information available from the National Cancer Incidence Database. Crude and age-standardized rates were calculated by gender for 18 age groups (0~4, 5~9, 10~14, every five years, 85 years and over).
The overall crude incidence rates (CRs) were 269.2 and 212.8 per 100,000 for males and females, and the overall age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were 287.8 and 172.9 per 100,000, respectively. Among males, the five leading primary cancer sites were stomach (CR 62.4, ASR 65.7), lung (CR 45.4, ASR 51.0), liver (CR 43.2, ASR 43.7), colon and rectum (CR 30.7, ASR 32.7), and prostate (CR 8.0, ASR 9.6). Among females, the most common cancer sites were breast (CR 33.1, ASR 26.9), followed by stomach (CR 32.8, ASR 26.0), colon and rectum (CR 23.1, ASR 18.5), thyroid (CR 19.1, ASR 15.7), and uterine cervix (CR 18.2, ASR 14.7). In the 0~14 age group, leukemia was the most common cancer for both genders. For males, stomach cancer was the most common cancer in the 15~64 age-group, but lung cancer was more frequent in men 65 or older. For females, thyroid cancer among the 15~34 age-group, breast cancer among 35~64 age-group and stomach cancer in women 65 years or older were the most common forms of cancer for each age group. The quality indices for the percentage of deaths, by death certificate only, were 4.7% for males and 4.5% for females.
Since the National Cancer Incidence Database was started, the annual percent change of cancer cases increased by 4.8% (4.1% for males, 5.7% for females) during 1999~2002. This value reflects the increase in prostate cancer for males and breast and thyroid cancer in females during 2002. The timely reporting of improved quality of cancer registration is needed for evidence-based decisions regarding cancer control in Korea.
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In spite of gastric cancer's decreasing incidence and mortality rates, it is still the most common cancer in Korea. In the present study, we examined the temporal trends of gastric cancer mortality during the past 20 years in Korea by using an age-period-cohort model, and we predicted the mortality rates for the next 10 years.
Data on the annual number of deaths due to gastric cancer and data on population statistics from 1984 to 2003 were obtained from the Korean National Statistical Office. A log-linear Poisson age-period-cohort model was used to estimate age, period and birth cohort effects. To project two periods (10 years) into the future, the new cohort values were estimated by performing linear regression that was applied to a chosen number of the most recent cohort values.
The trends of gastric cancer mortality were predominantly explained by the cohort effect; the risk of gastric cancer death decreased since the 1919 birth cohort for both genders. The predicted, expected age-adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 for males and females are 45.72 and 23.75, respectively, during 2004~2008, and 34.62 and 17.93 respectively, during 2009~2013. During 2004~2008 and 2009~2013, the predicted numbers of deaths due to gastric cancer in males are 36,922 and 27,959, respectively, whereas those in females are 19,698 and 14,869, respectively.
Not only the mortality, but also the incidence of gastric cancer in Korea is expected to further decrease in both men and women if the trends of the past 20 years continue.
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