, Cheol Min Shin1,3
, Kyungdo Han4, Jin-Hyung Jung5, Jinju Choi3, Eun Hyo Jin1,2, Seung Joo Kang1,2, Dong Ho Lee1,3 1Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
2Department of Internal Medicine, Healthcare Research Institute, Healthcare System Gangnam Center, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Korea
3Departement of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, Korea
4Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Soongsil University, Seoul, Korea
5Samsung Biomedical Research Institute, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
Copyright © 2026 by the Korean Cancer Association
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Ethical Statement
This study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Seoul National University Bundang Hospital (IRB No. X-2305-828-902). The study was conducted in compliance with the 1964 Declaration of Helsinki. The requirement for informed consent was waived due to the retrospective study design, and the Institutional Review Board approved the waiver of informed consent as no identifying information was involved.
Author Contributions
Conceived and designed the analysis: Lim JH, Shin CM, Han K, Jung JH.
Collected the data: Han K, Jung JH.
Contributed data or analysis tools: Lim JH, Shin CM, Han K, Jung JH.
Performed the analysis: Lim JH, Shin CM, Han K, Jung JH.
Wrote the paper: Lim JH, Shin CM.
Critical revision: Choi J, Jin EH, Kang SJ, Lee DH.
Conflicts of Interest
Conflict of interest relevant to this article was not reported.
Funding
This work was supported by grant no 06-2023-0153 from the Seoul National University Bundang Hospital Research Fund.
| No. | Gastric cancer | Duration | IR | Model 1a) HR (95% CI) | Model 2b) aHR (95% CI) | Model 3c) HR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smoking amount | |||||||
| None | 676,602 | 4,242 | 4,594,393.53 | 0.92 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Light (< 10 PY) | 175,223 | 1,010 | 1,186,527.12 | 0.85 | 0.92 (0.86-0.99) | 1.02 (0.94-1.10) | 1.01 (0.93-1.08) |
| Moderate (10-20 PY) | 175,144 | 1,297 | 1,175,930.18 | 1.10 | 1.19 (1.12-1.27) | 1.14 (1.06-1.22) | 1.12 (1.04-1.20) |
| Heavy (≥ 20 PY) | 255,733 | 3,205 | 1,715,315.95 | 1.87 | 2.02 (1.93-2.12) | 1.38 (1.31-1.46) | 1.34 (1.27-1.42) |
| Alcohol consumption | |||||||
| None | 638,072 | 4,719 | 4,328,392.31 | 1.09 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Mild (< 30 g/day) | 523,323 | 3,859 | 3,528,468.84 | 1.09 | 1.00 (0.96-1.05) | 1.08 (1.03-1.13) | 1.05 (0.998-1.10) |
| Heavy (≥ 30 g/day) | 121,307 | 1,176 | 815,305.63 | 1.44 | 1.32 (1.24-1.41) | 1.30 (1.22-1.39) | 1.23 (1.15-1.32) |
| Abdominal obesity | |||||||
| No | 986,054 | 6,943 | 6,698,712.79 | 1.04 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Yes | 296,648 | 2,811 | 1,973,453.99 | 1.42 | 1.37 (1.32-1.44) | 1.11 (1.06-1.16) | 1.11 (1.06-1.15) |
aHR, adjusted hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio; IR, incidence rate (per 1,000 person-years); PY, pack-year.
a) Not adjusted,
b) Adjusted for age at Helicobacter pylori eradication (continuous) and sex,
c) Adjusted for age at Helicobacter pylori eradication (continuous), sex, income (low/mid-high), alcohol consumption (none/mild/heavy), and abdominal obesity (no/yes).
| Total (n=1,282,702) | Smoking amount |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None (n=676,602) | Light (< 10 PY) (n=175,223) | Moderate (10-20 PY) (n=175,144) | Heavy (≥ 20 PY) (n=255,733) | p-value | ||
| Age at HPE (cont, yr) | 52.1±11.2 | 53.5±11.3 | 46.5±11.3 | 48.7±10.1 | 54.3±9.4 | < 0.001 |
| Male sex | 755,798 (58.9) | 187,436 (27.7) | 148,472 (84.7) | 168,088 (96.0) | 251,802 (98.5) | < 0.001 |
| BMI (cont, kg/m2) | 24.0±3.2 | 23.9±3.2 | 24.1±3.2 | 24.3±3.1 | 24.3±3.1 | < 0.001 |
| WC (cont, cm) | 81.6±9.0 | 79.5±9.0 | 82.7±8.5 | 84.0±8.1 | 84.9±8.1 | < 0.001 |
| Systolic BP (mmHg) | 123.1±14.6 | 122.3±15.0 | 122.7±13.8 | 123.9±13.7 | 125.0±14.3 | < 0.001 |
| Diastolic BP (mmHg) | 76.7±10.0 | 75.8±10.0 | 77.1±9.8 | 77.9±9.8 | 78.2±9.9 | < 0.001 |
| FPG (cont, mg/dL) | 99.7±24.1 | 98.1±22.4 | 98.3±22.4 | 100.3±24.2 | 104.3±28.6 | < 0.001 |
| Total cholesterol | 197.7±37.4 | 198.3±37.5 | 195.7±36.4 | 198.0±36.8 | 197.4±38.1 | < 0.001 |
| Obesity | 462,077 (36.0) | 226,173 (33.4) | 64,744 (37.0) | 69,178 (39.5) | 101,982 (39.9) | < 0.001 |
| Abdominal obesity | 296,648 (23.1) | 146,625 (21.7) | 37,827 (21.6) | 55,384 (31.6) | 100,610 (39.3) | < 0.001 |
| Diabetes mellitus | 147,867 (11.5) | 70,614 (10.4) | 14,998 (8.6) | 18,889 (10.8) | 43,366 (17.0) | < 0.001 |
| Hypertension | 395,436 (30.8) | 208,352 (30.8) | 43,552 (24.9) | 49,972 (28.5) | 93,560 (36.6) | < 0.001 |
| Dyslipidemia | 322,613 (25.2) | 180,683 (26.7) | 34,190 (19.5) | 38,821 (22.2) | 68,919 (27.0) | < 0.001 |
| Chronic kidney disease | 56,101 (4.4) | 34,988 (5.2) | 5,412 (3.1) | 5,434 (3.1) | 10,267 (4.0) | < 0.001 |
| Metabolic syndrome | 403,285 (31.4) | 200,844 (29.7) | 46,447 (26.5) | 55,384 (31.6) | 100,610 (39.3) | < 0.001 |
| Low income | 246,996 (19.3) | 146,443 (21.6) | 26,449 (15.1) | 25,896 (14.8) | 48,208 (18.9) | < 0.001 |
| Regular exercise | 258,432 (20.2) | 136,451 (20.2) | 37,692 (21.5) | 35,741 (20.4) | 48,548 (19.0) | < 0.001 |
| Smoking status | ||||||
| Never | 676,602 (52.8) | 676,602 (100) | 0 | 0 | 0 | NA |
| Former | 229,908 (17.9) | 0 | 84,977 (48.5) | 64,773 (37.0) | 80,158 (31.3) | |
| Current | 376,192 (29.3) | 0 | 90,246 (51.5) | 110,371 (63.0) | 175,575 (68.7) | |
| Smoking amount | ||||||
| None | 676,602 (52.8) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Light (< 10 PY) | 175,223 (13.7) | NA | NA | NA | NA | |
| Moderate (10-20 PY) | 175,144 (13.7) | NA | NA | NA | NA | |
| Heavy (≥ 20 PY) | 255,733 (19.9) | NA | NA | NA | NA | |
| Drinking amount | ||||||
| None | 638,072 (49.7) | 471,829 (69.7) | 48,342 (27.6) | 44,446 (25.4) | 73,455 (28.7) | < 0.001 |
| Mild (< 30 g/day) | 523,323 (40.8) | 187,200 (27.7) | 107,952 (61.6) | 104,050 (59.4) | 124,121 (48.5) | |
| Heavy (≥ 30 g/day) | 121,307 (9.5) | 17,573 (2.6) | 18,929 (10.8) | 26,648 (15.2) | 58,157 (22.7) | |
| F/U duration, median (Q1-Q3) | 6.7 (5.1-8.5) | 6.7 (5.1-8.5) | 6.7 (5.1-8.5) | 6.6 (5.0-8.5) | 6.7 (5.0-8.5) | < 0.001 |
| No. | Gastric cancer | Duration | IR | Model 1 |
Model 2 |
Model 3 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smoking amount | |||||||
| None | 676,602 | 4,242 | 4,594,393.53 | 0.92 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Light (< 10 PY) | 175,223 | 1,010 | 1,186,527.12 | 0.85 | 0.92 (0.86-0.99) | 1.02 (0.94-1.10) | 1.01 (0.93-1.08) |
| Moderate (10-20 PY) | 175,144 | 1,297 | 1,175,930.18 | 1.10 | 1.19 (1.12-1.27) | 1.14 (1.06-1.22) | 1.12 (1.04-1.20) |
| Heavy (≥ 20 PY) | 255,733 | 3,205 | 1,715,315.95 | 1.87 | 2.02 (1.93-2.12) | 1.38 (1.31-1.46) | 1.34 (1.27-1.42) |
| Alcohol consumption | |||||||
| None | 638,072 | 4,719 | 4,328,392.31 | 1.09 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Mild (< 30 g/day) | 523,323 | 3,859 | 3,528,468.84 | 1.09 | 1.00 (0.96-1.05) | 1.08 (1.03-1.13) | 1.05 (0.998-1.10) |
| Heavy (≥ 30 g/day) | 121,307 | 1,176 | 815,305.63 | 1.44 | 1.32 (1.24-1.41) | 1.30 (1.22-1.39) | 1.23 (1.15-1.32) |
| Abdominal obesity | |||||||
| No | 986,054 | 6,943 | 6,698,712.79 | 1.04 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Yes | 296,648 | 2,811 | 1,973,453.99 | 1.42 | 1.37 (1.32-1.44) | 1.11 (1.06-1.16) | 1.11 (1.06-1.15) |
| Lag period 2.5 years |
Lag period 3.5 years |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | Gastric cancer | Duration | IR | aHR (95% CI) | No. | Gastric cancer | Duration | IR | aHR (95% CI) | |
| Smoking amount | ||||||||||
| None | 674,467 | 3,462 | 3,918,839.27 | 0.88 | 1 (reference) | 672,285 | 2,942 | 3,245,434.92 | 0.91 | 1 (reference) |
| Light (< 10 PY) | 174,659 | 818 | 1,011,581.30 | 0.81 | 0.99 (0.91-1.08) | 174,102 | 700 | 837,200.20 | 0.84 | 1.00 (0.92-1.10) |
| Moderate (10-20 PY) | 174,451 | 1,064 | 1,001,124.73 | 1.06 | 1.12 (1.04-1.21) | 173,751 | 892 | 827,025.57 | 1.08 | 1.11 (1.02-1.21) |
| Heavy (≥ 20 PY) | 253,873 | 2,613 | 1,460,464.70 | 1.79 | 1.34 (1.26-1.43) | 251,988 | 2,253 | 1,207,517.18 | 1.87 | 1.36 (1.27-1.46) |
| Alcohol consumption | ||||||||||
| None | 635,288 | 3,824 | 3,691,685.82 | 1.04 | 1 (reference) | 632,373 | 3,246 | 3,057,831.33 | 1.06 | 1 (reference) |
| Mild (< 30 g/day) | 521,476 | 3,162 | 3,006,031.14 | 1.05 | 1.06 (1.003-1.11) | 519,669 | 2,698 | 2,485,452.05 | 1.09 | 1.06 (1.002-1.12) |
| Heavy (≥ 30 g/day) | 120,686 | 971 | 694,293.04 | 1.40 | 1.25 (1.16-1.35) | 120,084 | 843 | 573,894.49 | 1.47 | 1.28 (1.18-1.39) |
| Abdominal obesity | ||||||||||
| No | 982,312 | 5,661 | 5,714,487 | 0.99 | 1 (reference) | 978,517 | 4,809 | 4,734,035.00 | 1.02 | 1 (reference) |
| Yes | 295,138 | 2,296 | 1,677,522.62 | 1.37 | 1.11 (1.06-1.17) | 293,609 | 1,978 | 1,383,142.88 | 1.43 | 1.13 (1.07-1.19) |
Continuous variables (mean±standard deviation); categorical variables (number [%]). BMI, body mass index; BP, blood pressure; cont, continuous; F/U, follow-up; FPG, fasting plasma glucose; HPE,
aHR, adjusted hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio; IR, incidence rate (per 1,000 person-years); PY, pack-year. Not adjusted, Adjusted for age at Adjusted for age at
Adjusted for age at
