, Minji Han2
, Sangwoo Park3, Sun Jae Park3, Jihun Song3, Hye Jun Kim3, Jaewon Kim3, Hyeokjong Lee3, Hyun-Young Shin4, Kyae Hyung Kim5, Sang Min Park3,5
1Institute of Health and Environment Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
2Department of Health Science and Technology, Graduate School of Convergence Science and Technology, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
3Department of Biomedical Sciences, Seoul National University Graduate School, Seoul, Korea
4Department of Family Medicine, Seoul St. Mary’s Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea
5Department of Family Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Korea
Copyright © 2026 by the Korean Cancer Association
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Ethical Statement
This study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Seoul National University Hospital (IRB No. E-2204-038-1314). The requirement for informed consent was waived because the study was conducted using de-identified cohort data and posed minimal risk to participants.
Author Contributions
Conceived and designed the analysis: Lee SK, Han M, Park SM.
Collected the data: Park S, Park SJ, Song J, Kim HJ, Kim J, Lee H.
Contributed data or analysis tools: Lee SK, Han M, Park SM.
Performed the analysis: Lee SK, Han M.
Wrote the paper: Lee SK, Han M.
Critical review of the manuscript for important intellectual content: Lee SK, Han M, Park S, Park SJ, Song J, Kim HJ, Kim J, Lee H, Shin HY, Kim KH, Park SM.
Conflicts of Interest
Conflict of interest relevant to this article was not reported.
Funding
The Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education (RS-2023-00244084); Sangwoo Park received a BK21 FOUR education program scholarship. It was offered by the National Research Foundation of Korea (2021R1F1A1063346).
The aHRs were calculated by Cox proportional hazards regression after adjustments for multivariate variables. Model 1 was adjusted for sociodemographic factors, including age and sex. Model 1* was adjusted for age. Model 2 was adjusted for the variables in model 1 (or model 1*) plus household income and plus Charlson comorbidity index. Model 3 was adjusted for the variables in model 2 plus the results of health examination, including smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, fasting serum glucose and total cholesterol. Model 4 was adjusted for the variables in model 3 plus types of cancer treatment including chemotherapy and radiation therapy. aHR, adjusted hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; IR, incidence rate per 100 person-year.
| Type of cancer (ICD-10, N) |
Metabolic equivalents of tasks (METs) (MET-min/wk) |
p for trend | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 to < 500 | 500 to < 1,000 | Over 1,000 | ||
| All-cancer (C00-C97, n=344,152) | |||||
| Events | 6,853 | 6,340 | 6,831 | 4,339 | |
| Person-years | 388,856 | 573,692 | 606,592 | 448,039 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.89 (0.86-0.92) | 0.85 (0.83-0.88) | 0.79 (0.76-0.82) | < 0.001 |
| Lip, oral cavity, and pharynx (C00-C14, n=3,611) | |||||
| Events | 76 | 55 | 80 | 53 | |
| Person-years | 4,077 | 5,394 | 6,217 | 4,313 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.76 (0.53-1.07) | 0.97 (0.70-1.35) | 0.99 (0.69-1.42) | 0.555 |
| Esophagus (C15, n=1,535) | |||||
| Events | 45 | 39 | 63 | 39 | |
| Person-years | 1,522 | 1,772 | 2,357 | 1,935 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.70 (0.45-1.09) | 0.91 (0.61-1.34) | 0.78 (0.50-1.22) | 0.653 |
| Stomach cancer (C16, n=46,808) | |||||
| Events | 1,426 | 1,281 | 1,376 | 828 | |
| Person-years | 55,307 | 69,409 | 82,269 | 61,867 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.97 (0.90-1.04) | 0.86 (0.79-0.92) | 0.76 (0.69-0.83) | < 0.001 |
| Colon cancer (C18-C20, n=44,278) | |||||
| Events | 1,105 | 1,033 | 1,131 | 710 | |
| Person-years | 48,805 | 65,823 | 78,415 | 62,342 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.93 (0.85-1.01) | 0.86 (0.79-0.94) | 0.79 (0.72-0.87) | < 0.001 |
| Liver cancer (C22, n=12,015) | |||||
| Events | 215 | 181 | 242 | 139 | |
| Person-years | 11,926 | 15,750 | 18,305 | 13,993 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.76 (0.62-0.93) | 0.91 (0.76-1.10) | 0.74 (0.60-0.93) | 0.202 |
| Gallbladder and biliary tract (C23-C24, n=3,022) | |||||
| Events | 109 | 94 | 92 | 58 | |
| Person-years | 3,335 | 3,939 | 4,561 | 3,291 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 1.01 (0.76-1.34) | 0.91 (0.68-1.21) | 0.88 (0.63-1.23) | 0.209 |
| Pancreas cancer (C25, n=2,745) | |||||
| Events | 71 | 59 | 80 | 49 | |
| Person-years | 2,859 | 3,939 | 4,250 | 3,295 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.77 (0.54-1.09) | 1.01 (0.73-1.40) | 0.79 (0.54-1.16) | 0.286 |
| Larynx cancer (C32, n=1,856) | |||||
| Events | 57 | 60 | 53 | 44 | |
| Person-years | 2,167 | 2,687 | 3,056 | 2,365 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 1.17 (0.81-1.69) | 0.83 (0.57-1.22) | 0.87 (0.58-1.31) | 0.276 |
| Lung cancer (C33-C34, n=12,630) | |||||
| Events | 349 | 353 | 359 | 249 | |
| Person-years | 11,408 | 16,178 | 19,139 | 15,221 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.87 (0.75-1.01) | 0.78 (0.68-0.91) | 0.76 (0.65-0.90) | 0.004 |
| Breast cancer (C50, n=38,281) | |||||
| Events | 355 | 394 | 407 | 255 | |
| Person-years | 33,473 | 63,748 | 70,158 | 59,131 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.86 (0.74-0.99) | 0.85 (0.74-0.99) | 0.76 (0.64-0.90) | 0.003 |
| Cervical cancer (C53, n=7,626) | |||||
| Events | 158 | 114 | 125 | 55 | |
| Person-years | 11,561 | 14,715 | 13,095 | 7,933 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.80 (0.63-1.02) | 0.97 (0.76-1.23) | 0.88 (0.64-1.20) | 0.387 |
| Corpus uteri cancer (C54, n=3,985) | |||||
| Events | 43 | 44 | 48 | 22 | |
| Person-years | 4,440 | 7,271 | 6,907 | 5,078 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.78 (0.50-1.20) | 0.88 (0.58-1.34) | 0.57 (0.34-0.97) | 0.020 |
| Ovary cancer (C56, n=3,564) | |||||
| Events | 42 | 44 | 32 | 28 | |
| Person-years | 3,778 | 6,042 | 5,666 | 4,528 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.90 (0.58-1.36) | 0.72 (0.45-1.16) | 0.87 (0.53-1.44) | 0.244 |
| Prostate cancer (C61, n=18,643) | |||||
| Events | 649 | 642 | 828 | 590 | |
| Person-years | 18,061 | 23,570 | 30,793 | 27,294 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.90 (0.80-1.00) | 0.87 (0.79-0.97) | 0.78 (0.70-0.88) | 0.001 |
| Kidney cancer (C64, n=7,521) | |||||
| Events | 142 | 125 | 141 | 99 | |
| Person-years | 8,272 | 12,070 | 13,279 | 10,276 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.87 (0.68-1.11) | 0.92 (0.73-1.17) | 0.91 (0.70-1.18) | 0.509 |
| Bladder cancer (C67, n=7,777) | |||||
| Events | 287 | 200 | 269 | 165 | |
| Person-years | 9,393 | 11,145 | 13,085 | 9,517 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.75 (0.62-0.90) | 0.78 (0.66-0.92) | 0.75 (0.62-0.91) | 0.003 |
| Brain cancer (C70-C72, n=2,926) | |||||
| Events | 92 | 106 | 94 | 56 | |
| Person-years | 3,605 | 5,018 | 4,506 | 3,398 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 1.04 (0.78-1.38) | 1.03 (0.76-1.38) | 0.80 (0.57-1.12) | 0.065 |
| Thyroid gland cancer (C73, n=103,076) | |||||
| Events | 858 | 949 | 852 | 573 | |
| Person-years | 127,780 | 209,359 | 194,249 | 128,720 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.94 (0.86-1.03) | 0.87 (0.79-0.96) | 0.87 (0.79-0.97) | 0.006 |
| Multiple myeloma (C90, n=902) | |||||
| Events | 40 | 17 | 24 | 7 | |
| Person-years | 847 | 1,070 | 1,185 | 888 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.40 (0.21-0.73) | 0.68 (0.39-1.20) | 0.42 (0.18-1.00) | 0.070 |
| Leukemia (C91-C95, n=2,095) | |||||
| Events | 36 | 30 | 33 | 22 | |
| Person-years | 2,269 | 3,722 | 3,537 | 2,261 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.87 (0.52-1.45) | 1.2 (0.72-2.00) | 1.08 (0.61-1.90) | 0.100 |
| Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (C82-C86, C96, n=5,056) | |||||
| Events | 108 | 84 | 93 | 61 | |
| Person-years | 5,448 | 8,138 | 9,120 | 6,453 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.70 (0.52-0.93) | 0.70 (0.52-0.93) | 0.68 (0.50-0.94) | 0.213 |
| Alcohol-related cancer (n=97,276) | |||||
| Events | 1,760 | 1,693 | 1,873 | 1,192 | |
| Person-years | 97,794 | 149,141 | 170,717 | 137,955 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.89 (0.84-0.96) | 0.87 (0.81-0.93) | 0.79 (0.73-0.85) | < 0.001 |
| Obesity-related cancer (n=127,833) | |||||
| Events | 2,663 | 2,547 | 2,920 | 1,912 | |
| Person-years | 128,543 | 191,509 | 221,433 | 180,839 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.89 (0.84-0.94) | 0.87 (0.82-0.92) | 0.79 (0.74-0.84) | < 0.001 |
| Smoking-related cancer (n=149,091) | |||||
| Events | 3,905 | 3,486 | 3,870 | 2,431 | |
| Person-years | 168,065 | 220,619 | 254,494 | 194,087 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.90 (0.86-0.94) | 0.85 (0.81-0.89) | 0.78 (0.75-0.83) | < 0.001 |
| GI-related cancer (n=109,100) | |||||
| Events | 2,946 | 2,656 | 2,942 | 1,810 | |
| Person-years | 122,658 | 158,872 | 188,010 | 145,135 | |
| aHR (95% CI)a) | 1.00 (reference) | 0.93 (0.88-0.98) | 0.86 (0.82-0.91) | 0.77 (0.73-0.82) | < 0.001 |
aHR, adjusted hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; GI, gastrointestinal; ICD-10, International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision.
a) Adjusted for age, sex, household income, smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, fasting serum glucose, total cholesterol, waist circumference, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, creatinine, Charlson comorbidity index, chemotherapy and radiation therapy. Alcohol-related cancer includes oral cavity (C00-09), pharynx (C10-C14), esophagus (C15), colon (C18), rectum (C20), liver (C22), larynx (C32), breast in women (C50). Obesity-related cancer includes esophageal cancer, gastric cancer, colorectal cancer, liver cancer, kidney cancer, multiple myeloma, meningioma, pancreatic cancer, and gallbladder cancer (U.S National Cancer Institute). Smoking-related cancer includes cancers of head and neck, esophagus, stomach, colorectum, liver, pancreas, larynx, trachea, lung, bladder, kidney, kidney pelvis, or ureter, and acute myeloid leukemia (U.S Surgeon General’s Report, 2014). GI-cancer includes cancers of gastrointestinal tract and digestive organs (ICD-10 codes: C15-26).
| Metabolic equivalents of tasks (METs) (MET-min/wk) |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (n=344,152) | 0 (n=66,880) | 1 to < 500 (n=96,912) | 500 to < 1,000 (n=103,800) | Over 1,000 (n=76,560) | |
| METs, MET-min/wk | 625.07±572.96 | 0 | 292.97±115.48 | 690.32±133.93 | 1,489.09±429.11 |
| Age (yr) | 58.68±12.17 | 60.92±12.39 | 57.37±12.43 | 58.39±12.23 | 58.77±11.26 |
| Sex | |||||
| Men | 150,366 (43.7) | 27,600 (41.3) | 38,200 (39.4) | 47,115 (45.4) | 37,451 (48.9) |
| Women | 193,786 (56.3) | 39,280 (58.7) | 58,712 (60.6) | 56,685 (54.6) | 39,109 (51.1) |
| Household income, quartiles | |||||
| 1st (highest) | 72,944 (21.2) | 15,402 (23.0) | 20,272 (20.9) | 21,654 (20.9) | 15,616 (20.4) |
| 2nd | 57,559 (16.7) | 11,915 (17.8) | 16,266 (16.8) | 17,008 (16.4) | 12,370 (16.2) |
| 3rd | 80,795 (23.5) | 16,361 (24.5) | 23,189 (23.9) | 24,044 (23.2) | 17,201 (22.5) |
| 4th (lowest) | 132,854 (38.6) | 23,202 (34.7) | 37,185 (38.4) | 41,094 (39.6) | 31,373 (41.0) |
| Smoking | |||||
| Never smoker | 238,707 (69.4) | 49,077 (73.4) | 69,041 (71.2) | 70,095 (67.5) | 50,494 (66.0) |
| Past smoker | 75,990 (22.1) | 10,674 (16.0) | 19,500 (20.1) | 25,031 (24.1) | 20,785 (27.1) |
| Current smoker | 29,455 (8.6) | 7,129 (10.7) | 8,371 (8.6) | 8,674 (8.4) | 5,281 (6.9) |
| Alcohol consumption, days per week | |||||
| Non-drinker (0) | 261,491 (76.0) | 54,127 (80.9) | 72,648 (75.0) | 77,237 (74.4) | 57,479 (75.1) |
| 1-2 | 59,295 (17.2) | 7,934 (11.9) | 18,510 (19.1) | 19,427 (18.7) | 13,424 (17.5) |
| 3-4 | 15,237 (4.4) | 2,793 (4.2) | 3,944 (4.1) | 4,725 (4.6) | 3,775 (4.9) |
| Over 4 | 8,129 (2.4) | 2,026 (3.0) | 1,810 (1.9) | 2,411 (2.3) | 1,882 (2.5) |
| BMI (kg/m2) | 23.79±3.28 | 23.98±3.47 | 23.79±3.35 | 23.72±3.24 | 23.74±3.07 |
| SBP (mmHg) | 122.50±14.94 | 123.53±15.52 | 121.81±14.90 | 122.37±14.88 | 122.66±14.51 |
| FBS (mg/dL) | 100.97±23.96 | 102.28±26.34 | 100.05±23.33 | 100.68±23.57 | 100.83±23.04 |
| Total cholesterol (mg/dL) | 189.13±38.83 | 189.59±39.60 | 189.93±38.89 | 188.75±38.63 | 188.22±38.33 |
| CCI, score | 2.79±1.43 | 2.86±1.54 | 2.76±1.42 | 2.77±1.40 | 2.79±1.36 |
| Treatment of cancer | |||||
| Chemotherapy | 148,613 (43.2) | 31,436 (47.0) | 39,701 (41.0) | 44,001 (42.4) | 33,475 (43.7) |
| Radiation therapy | 49,292 (14.3) | 8,273 (12.4) | 13,459 (13.9) | 15,155 (14.6) | 12,405 (16.2) |
| Metabolic equivalents of tasks (METs) (MET-min/wk) |
p for trend | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 to < 500 | 500 to < 1,000 | Over 1,000 | ||
| Total | |||||
| No. of patients | 66,880 | 96,912 | 103,800 | 76,560 | |
| Overall dementia | |||||
| Events | 6,853 | 6,340 | 6,831 | 4,339 | |
| Person-years | 388,856 | 573,692 | 606,592 | 448,039 | |
| IR (95% CI) | 1.76 (1.72-1.80) | 1.11 (1.08-1.13) | 1.13 (1.10-1.15) | 0.97 (0.94-1.00) | |
| aHR (95% CI) | |||||
| Model 1 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.88 (0.85-0.91) | 0.83 (0.81-0.86) | 0.76 (0.73-0.79) | < 0.001 |
| Model 2 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.88 (0.85-0.91) | 0.84 (0.81-0.87) | 0.76 (0.73-0.79) | < 0.001 |
| Model 3 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.89 (0.86-0.92) | 0.86 (0.83-0.88) | 0.79 (0.76-0.82) | < 0.001 |
| Model 4 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.89 (0.86-0.92) | 0.85 (0.83-0.88) | 0.79 (0.76-0.82) | < 0.001 |
| Alzheimer’s dementia | |||||
| Events | 5,599 | 5,043 | 5,435 | 3,330 | |
| Person-years | 392,229 | 577,244 | 610,406 | 450,772 | |
| IR (95% CI) | 1.43 (1.39-1.47) | 0.87 (0.85-0.90) | 0.89 (0.87-0.91) | 0.74 (0.71-0.76) | |
| aHR (95% CI) | |||||
| Model 1 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.87 (0.84-0.91) | 0.83 (0.80-0.87) | 0.74 (0.71-0.78) | < 0.001 |
| Model 2 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.88 (0.84-0.91) | 0.84 (0.81-0.87) | 0.75 (0.72-0.78) | < 0.001 |
| Model 3 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.89 (0.86-0.93) | 0.86 (0.83-0.89) | 0.78 (0.75-0.81) | < 0.001 |
| Model 4 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.89 (0.86-0.93) | 0.86 (0.83-0.89) | 0.78 (0.74-0.81) | < 0.001 |
| Vascular dementia | |||||
| Events | 1,161 | 1,116 | 1,189 | 772 | |
| Person-years | 403,303 | 586,760 | 620,571 | 457,109 | |
| IR (95% CI) | 0.29 (0.27-0.30) | 0.19 (0.18-0.20) | 0.19 (0.18-0.20) | 0.17 (0.16-0.18) | |
| aHR (95% CI) | |||||
| Model 1 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.89 (0.82-0.97) | 0.84 (0.77-0.91) | 0.77 (0.71-0.85) | < 0.001 |
| Model 2 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.89 (0.82-0.97) | 0.85 (0.77-0.91) | 0.77 (0.71-0.85) | < 0.001 |
| Model 3 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.90 (0.83-0.98) | 0.86 (0.79-0.93) | 0.80 (0.73-0.88) | < 0.001 |
| Model 4 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.90 (0.83-0.98) | 0.86 (0.79-0.93) | 0.78 (0.73-0.88) | < 0.001 |
| Men | |||||
| No. of patients | 27,600 | 38,200 | 47,115 | 37,451 | |
| Overall Dementia | |||||
| Events | 3,269 | 3,045 | 3,798 | 2,663 | |
| Person-years | 150,287 | 215,813 | 264,384 | 211,561 | |
| IR (95% CI) | 2.18 (2.10-2.25) | 1.41 (1.36-1.46) | 1.44 (1.39-1.48) | 1.26 (1.21-1.31) | |
| aHR (95% CI) | |||||
| Model 1 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.86 (0.82-0.91) | 0.80 (0.76-0.84) | 0.72 (0.68-0.75) | < 0.001 |
| Model 2 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.86 (0.82-0.90) | 0.80 (0.76-0.84) | 0.72 (0.68-0.76) | < 0.001 |
| Model 3 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.89 (0.84-0.93) | 0.83 (0.79-0.87) | 0.76 (0.72-0.80) | < 0.001 |
| Model 4 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.89 (0.85-0.93) | 0.83 (0.79-0.87) | 0.76 (0.72-0.80) | < 0.001 |
| Alzheimer’s dementia | 1.00 (reference) | 1.34 (0.77-2.34) | 1.12 (0.28-4.54) | 2.55 (0.81-8.08) | |
| Events | 2,662 | 2,455 | 3,080 | 2,100 | |
| Person-years | 151,751 | 217,290 | 266,184 | 213,012 | |
| IR (95% CI) | 1.75 (1.69-1.82) | 1.13 (1.09-1.18) | 1.16 (1.12-1.20) | 0.99 (0.94-1.03) | |
| aHR (95% CI) | |||||
| Model 1 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.87 (0.82-0.92) | 0.81 (0.77-0.85) | 0.71 (0.67-0.76) | < 0.001 |
| Model 2 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.87 (0.82-0.92) | 0.81 (0.77-0.86) | 0.72 (0.68-0.76) | < 0.001 |
| Model 3 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.90 (0.85-0.95) | 0.85 (0.80-0.89) | 0.76 (0.72-0.81) | < 0.001 |
| Model 4 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.90 (0.85-0.95) | 0.85 (0.80-0.89) | 0.76 (0.72-0.81) | < 0.001 |
| Vascular dementia | |||||
| Events | 558 | 536 | 655 | 476 | |
| Person-years | 156,558 | 221,522 | 271,668 | 216,776 | |
| IR (95% CI) | 0.36 (0.33-0.39) | 0.24 (0.22-0.26) | 0.24 (0.22-0.26) | 0.22 (0.20-0.24) | |
| aHR (95% CI) | |||||
| Model 1 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.87 (0.77-0.98) | 0.80 (0.71-0.90) | 0.74 (0.66-0.84) | < 0.001 |
| Model 2 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.87 (0.77-0.98) | 0.81 (0.72-0.90) | 0.74 (0.66-0.84) | < 0.001 |
| Model 3 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.89 (0.79-1.01) | 0.82 (0.74-0.93) | 0.78 (0.69-0.88) | < 0.001 |
| Model 4 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.89 (0.79-1.01) | 0.83 (0.74-0.93) | 0.78 (0.69-0.88) | < 0.001 |
| Women | |||||
| No. of patients | 39,280 | 58,712 | 56,685 | 39,109 | |
| Overall dementia | |||||
| Events | 3,584 | 3,295 | 3,033 | 1,676 | |
| Person-years | 238,570 | 357,880 | 342,209 | 236,478 | |
| IR (95% CI) | 1.50 (1.45-1.55) | 0.92 (0.89-0.95) | 0.89 (0.86-0.92) | 0.71 (0.68-0.74) | |
| aHR (95% CI) | |||||
| Model 1 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.86 (0.82-0.90) | 0.80 (0.76-0.83) | 0.72 (0.68-0.75) | < 0.001 |
| Model 2 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.86 (0.82-0.91) | 0.80 (0.76-0.84) | 0.72 (0.68-0.76) | < 0.001 |
| Model 3 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.89 (0.85-0.94) | 0.83 (0.79-0.87) | 0.76 (0.72-0.80) | < 0.001 |
| Model 4 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.89 (0.84-0.93) | 0.83 (0.79-0.87) | 0.76 (0.72-0.80) | < 0.001 |
| Alzheimer’s dementia | 1.00 (reference) | 1.34 (0.77-2.34) | 1.12 (0.28-4.54) | 2.55 (0.81-8.08) | |
| Events | 2,937 | 2,588 | 2,355 | 1,230 | |
| Person-years | 240,478 | 359,954 | 344,223 | 237,760 | |
| IR (95% CI) | 1.22 (1.18-1.27) | 0.72 (0.69-0.75) | 0.68 (0.66-0.71) | 0.52 (0.49-0.55) | |
| aHR (95% CI) | |||||
| Model 1 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.87 (0.82-0.92) | 0.81 (0.77-0.85) | 0.71 (0.67-0.75) | < 0.001 |
| Model 2 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.87 (0.83-0.92) | 0.81 (0.77-0.86) | 0.72 (0.68-0.76) | < 0.001 |
| Model 3 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.90 (0.86-0.96) | 0.85 (0.80-0.89) | 0.76 (0.72-0.81) | < 0.001 |
| Model 4 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.90 (0.85-0.95) | 0.84 (0.80-0.89) | 0.76 (0.72-0.80) | < 0.001 |
| Vascular dementia | |||||
| Events | 603 | 580 | 534 | 296 | |
| Person-years | 246,745 | 365,238 | 348,903 | 240,333 | |
| IR (95% CI) | 0.24 (0.23-0.26) | 0.16 (0.15-0.17) | 0.15 (0.14-0.17) | 0.12 (0.11-0.14) | |
| aHR (95% CI) | |||||
| Model 1 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.87 (0.77-0.98) | 0.80 (0.71-0.90) | 0.74 (0.66-0.84) | < 0.001 |
| Model 2 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.87 (0.77-0.98) | 0.80 (0.71-0.90) | 0.74 (0.66-0.84) | < 0.001 |
| Model 3 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.89 (0.79-1.01) | 0.82 (0.74-0.92) | 0.78 (0.69-0.88) | < 0.001 |
| Model 4 | 1.00 (reference) | 0.89 (0.79-1.00) | 0.82 (0.74-0.92) | 0.77 (0.68-0.88) | < 0.001 |
| Type of cancer (ICD-10, N) | Metabolic equivalents of tasks (METs) (MET-min/wk) |
p for trend | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 to < 500 | 500 to < 1,000 | Over 1,000 | ||
| All-cancer (C00-C97, n=344,152) | |||||
| Events | 6,853 | 6,340 | 6,831 | 4,339 | |
| Person-years | 388,856 | 573,692 | 606,592 | 448,039 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.89 (0.86-0.92) | 0.85 (0.83-0.88) | 0.79 (0.76-0.82) | < 0.001 |
| Lip, oral cavity, and pharynx (C00-C14, n=3,611) | |||||
| Events | 76 | 55 | 80 | 53 | |
| Person-years | 4,077 | 5,394 | 6,217 | 4,313 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.76 (0.53-1.07) | 0.97 (0.70-1.35) | 0.99 (0.69-1.42) | 0.555 |
| Esophagus (C15, n=1,535) | |||||
| Events | 45 | 39 | 63 | 39 | |
| Person-years | 1,522 | 1,772 | 2,357 | 1,935 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.70 (0.45-1.09) | 0.91 (0.61-1.34) | 0.78 (0.50-1.22) | 0.653 |
| Stomach cancer (C16, n=46,808) | |||||
| Events | 1,426 | 1,281 | 1,376 | 828 | |
| Person-years | 55,307 | 69,409 | 82,269 | 61,867 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.97 (0.90-1.04) | 0.86 (0.79-0.92) | 0.76 (0.69-0.83) | < 0.001 |
| Colon cancer (C18-C20, n=44,278) | |||||
| Events | 1,105 | 1,033 | 1,131 | 710 | |
| Person-years | 48,805 | 65,823 | 78,415 | 62,342 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.93 (0.85-1.01) | 0.86 (0.79-0.94) | 0.79 (0.72-0.87) | < 0.001 |
| Liver cancer (C22, n=12,015) | |||||
| Events | 215 | 181 | 242 | 139 | |
| Person-years | 11,926 | 15,750 | 18,305 | 13,993 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.76 (0.62-0.93) | 0.91 (0.76-1.10) | 0.74 (0.60-0.93) | 0.202 |
| Gallbladder and biliary tract (C23-C24, n=3,022) | |||||
| Events | 109 | 94 | 92 | 58 | |
| Person-years | 3,335 | 3,939 | 4,561 | 3,291 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 1.01 (0.76-1.34) | 0.91 (0.68-1.21) | 0.88 (0.63-1.23) | 0.209 |
| Pancreas cancer (C25, n=2,745) | |||||
| Events | 71 | 59 | 80 | 49 | |
| Person-years | 2,859 | 3,939 | 4,250 | 3,295 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.77 (0.54-1.09) | 1.01 (0.73-1.40) | 0.79 (0.54-1.16) | 0.286 |
| Larynx cancer (C32, n=1,856) | |||||
| Events | 57 | 60 | 53 | 44 | |
| Person-years | 2,167 | 2,687 | 3,056 | 2,365 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 1.17 (0.81-1.69) | 0.83 (0.57-1.22) | 0.87 (0.58-1.31) | 0.276 |
| Lung cancer (C33-C34, n=12,630) | |||||
| Events | 349 | 353 | 359 | 249 | |
| Person-years | 11,408 | 16,178 | 19,139 | 15,221 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.87 (0.75-1.01) | 0.78 (0.68-0.91) | 0.76 (0.65-0.90) | 0.004 |
| Breast cancer (C50, n=38,281) | |||||
| Events | 355 | 394 | 407 | 255 | |
| Person-years | 33,473 | 63,748 | 70,158 | 59,131 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.86 (0.74-0.99) | 0.85 (0.74-0.99) | 0.76 (0.64-0.90) | 0.003 |
| Cervical cancer (C53, n=7,626) | |||||
| Events | 158 | 114 | 125 | 55 | |
| Person-years | 11,561 | 14,715 | 13,095 | 7,933 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.80 (0.63-1.02) | 0.97 (0.76-1.23) | 0.88 (0.64-1.20) | 0.387 |
| Corpus uteri cancer (C54, n=3,985) | |||||
| Events | 43 | 44 | 48 | 22 | |
| Person-years | 4,440 | 7,271 | 6,907 | 5,078 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.78 (0.50-1.20) | 0.88 (0.58-1.34) | 0.57 (0.34-0.97) | 0.020 |
| Ovary cancer (C56, n=3,564) | |||||
| Events | 42 | 44 | 32 | 28 | |
| Person-years | 3,778 | 6,042 | 5,666 | 4,528 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.90 (0.58-1.36) | 0.72 (0.45-1.16) | 0.87 (0.53-1.44) | 0.244 |
| Prostate cancer (C61, n=18,643) | |||||
| Events | 649 | 642 | 828 | 590 | |
| Person-years | 18,061 | 23,570 | 30,793 | 27,294 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.90 (0.80-1.00) | 0.87 (0.79-0.97) | 0.78 (0.70-0.88) | 0.001 |
| Kidney cancer (C64, n=7,521) | |||||
| Events | 142 | 125 | 141 | 99 | |
| Person-years | 8,272 | 12,070 | 13,279 | 10,276 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.87 (0.68-1.11) | 0.92 (0.73-1.17) | 0.91 (0.70-1.18) | 0.509 |
| Bladder cancer (C67, n=7,777) | |||||
| Events | 287 | 200 | 269 | 165 | |
| Person-years | 9,393 | 11,145 | 13,085 | 9,517 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.75 (0.62-0.90) | 0.78 (0.66-0.92) | 0.75 (0.62-0.91) | 0.003 |
| Brain cancer (C70-C72, n=2,926) | |||||
| Events | 92 | 106 | 94 | 56 | |
| Person-years | 3,605 | 5,018 | 4,506 | 3,398 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 1.04 (0.78-1.38) | 1.03 (0.76-1.38) | 0.80 (0.57-1.12) | 0.065 |
| Thyroid gland cancer (C73, n=103,076) | |||||
| Events | 858 | 949 | 852 | 573 | |
| Person-years | 127,780 | 209,359 | 194,249 | 128,720 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.94 (0.86-1.03) | 0.87 (0.79-0.96) | 0.87 (0.79-0.97) | 0.006 |
| Multiple myeloma (C90, n=902) | |||||
| Events | 40 | 17 | 24 | 7 | |
| Person-years | 847 | 1,070 | 1,185 | 888 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.40 (0.21-0.73) | 0.68 (0.39-1.20) | 0.42 (0.18-1.00) | 0.070 |
| Leukemia (C91-C95, n=2,095) | |||||
| Events | 36 | 30 | 33 | 22 | |
| Person-years | 2,269 | 3,722 | 3,537 | 2,261 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.87 (0.52-1.45) | 1.2 (0.72-2.00) | 1.08 (0.61-1.90) | 0.100 |
| Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (C82-C86, C96, n=5,056) | |||||
| Events | 108 | 84 | 93 | 61 | |
| Person-years | 5,448 | 8,138 | 9,120 | 6,453 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.70 (0.52-0.93) | 0.70 (0.52-0.93) | 0.68 (0.50-0.94) | 0.213 |
| Alcohol-related cancer (n=97,276) | |||||
| Events | 1,760 | 1,693 | 1,873 | 1,192 | |
| Person-years | 97,794 | 149,141 | 170,717 | 137,955 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.89 (0.84-0.96) | 0.87 (0.81-0.93) | 0.79 (0.73-0.85) | < 0.001 |
| Obesity-related cancer (n=127,833) | |||||
| Events | 2,663 | 2,547 | 2,920 | 1,912 | |
| Person-years | 128,543 | 191,509 | 221,433 | 180,839 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.89 (0.84-0.94) | 0.87 (0.82-0.92) | 0.79 (0.74-0.84) | < 0.001 |
| Smoking-related cancer (n=149,091) | |||||
| Events | 3,905 | 3,486 | 3,870 | 2,431 | |
| Person-years | 168,065 | 220,619 | 254,494 | 194,087 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.90 (0.86-0.94) | 0.85 (0.81-0.89) | 0.78 (0.75-0.83) | < 0.001 |
| GI-related cancer (n=109,100) | |||||
| Events | 2,946 | 2,656 | 2,942 | 1,810 | |
| Person-years | 122,658 | 158,872 | 188,010 | 145,135 | |
| aHR (95% CI) |
1.00 (reference) | 0.93 (0.88-0.98) | 0.86 (0.82-0.91) | 0.77 (0.73-0.82) | < 0.001 |
Values are presented as mean±SD or number (%). BMI, body mass index; CCI, Charlson comorbidity index; FBS, fasting blood glucose; MET, metabolic equivalents of task; SBP, systolic blood pressure; SD, standard deviation.
The aHRs were calculated by Cox proportional hazards regression after adjustments for multivariate variables. Model 1 was adjusted for sociodemographic factors, including age and sex. Model 1* was adjusted for age. Model 2 was adjusted for the variables in model 1 (or model 1*) plus household income and plus Charlson comorbidity index. Model 3 was adjusted for the variables in model 2 plus the results of health examination, including smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, fasting serum glucose and total cholesterol. Model 4 was adjusted for the variables in model 3 plus types of cancer treatment including chemotherapy and radiation therapy. aHR, adjusted hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; IR, incidence rate per 100 person-year.
aHR, adjusted hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; GI, gastrointestinal; ICD-10, International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision. Adjusted for age, sex, household income, smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, fasting serum glucose, total cholesterol, waist circumference, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, creatinine, Charlson comorbidity index, chemotherapy and radiation therapy. Alcohol-related cancer includes oral cavity (C00-09), pharynx (C10-C14), esophagus (C15), colon (C18), rectum (C20), liver (C22), larynx (C32), breast in women (C50). Obesity-related cancer includes esophageal cancer, gastric cancer, colorectal cancer, liver cancer, kidney cancer, multiple myeloma, meningioma, pancreatic cancer, and gallbladder cancer (U.S National Cancer Institute). Smoking-related cancer includes cancers of head and neck, esophagus, stomach, colorectum, liver, pancreas, larynx, trachea, lung, bladder, kidney, kidney pelvis, or ureter, and acute myeloid leukemia (U.S Surgeon General’s Report, 2014). GI-cancer includes cancers of gastrointestinal tract and digestive organs (ICD-10 codes: C15-26).
