This study aimed to report the projected cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2020 to estimate Korea’s current cancer burden.
Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2017 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2018 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against observed years and then by multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. A
In total, 243,263 new cancer cases and 80,546 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2020. The most common cancer site is expected to be the lung, followed by the stomach, thyroid, colon/rectum, and breast. These five cancers types are expected to represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. The most common type of cancer among people who die is expected to be lung cancer, followed by liver, colon/rectal, pancreatic, and stomach cancers.
The incidence rates for all types of cancer in Korea are estimated to decrease gradually. These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs.
As the leading cause of death in Korea [
The Korean Ministry of Health and Welfare initiated a nationwide, hospital-based cancer registry, known as the Korea Central Cancer Registry (KCCR), in 1980. The history, objectives, and activities of the KCCR have been documented in detail elsewhere [
The cancer sites included in this study were (1) all cancers sites combined and (2) the 24 most common cancer sites as follows: lips, oral cavity, and pharynx (C00-C14); esophagus (C15); stomach (C16); colon and rectum (C18-C20); liver (C22); gallbladder, etc. (C23-C24); pancreas (C25); larynx (C32); lung (C33-C34); breast (C50); cervix uteri (C53); corpus uteri (C54); ovary (C56); prostate (C61); testis (C62); kidney (C64); bladder (C67); brain and central nervous system (C70-C72); thyroid (C73); Hodgkin lymphoma (C81); non-Hodgkin lymphoma (C82-C86, C96); multiple myeloma (C90); leukemia (C91-C95); and “other and ill defined (remainder of C00-C96)” sites.
Population data from 1993 to 2020 were obtained from the resident registration population data, reported by Statistics Korea. Data on the mid-year population, as of July 1 of the respective year, were analyzed for the denominator. However, we used population data as of December 31, 2019 for the year 2020, because mid-2020 resident registration population data were not yet available at the time of the analysis.
Linear regression models [
Finally, we multiplied the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population to get the projected number of cancer cases and deaths for the year 2020.
We summarized the results using crude rates (CRs) and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of cancer incidence and mortality. ASRs were standardized using the world standard population [
In total, 243,263 new cancer cases are expected to occur in 2020 (
The projected CRs per 100,000 for all of the sites combined in 2020 are 487.5 and 450.9 in men and women, respectively (
The five most common cancer sites expected in 2020, according to sex and age groups, are shown in
It is estimated that 80,546 cancer deaths will occur in Korea during 2020 (
The predicted age-specific mortality rates of the leading cause of cancer death in men and women in 2020 are shown in further detail in
A total of 243,263 new cancer cases and 80,546 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea during 2020. Lung cancer is predicted to be the most common type of cancer among men, followed by stomach, colorectal, prostate, and liver cancers. Lung, liver, colorectal, stomach, and pancreatic cancers are expected to be the most common causes of cancer deaths among men. In women, the five leading primary cancer sites are expected to be the breast, thyroid, colorectum, stomach, and lung, while lung, colorectal, pancreatic, liver, and breast cancers are projected to be the most common causes of cancer deaths.
Cancer is currently one of the foremost public health concerns in Korea. Although cancer incidence rates are anticipated to decrease slightly, the burden of most types of cancers will continue to grow with the increasing age of the population. The current projections of cancer incidence and mortality for 2020 represent an important resource for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs. As the estimates in this study are model-based, these results should be interpreted with caution.
Conflict of interest relevant to this article was not reported.
The authors would like to thank the tumor registrars (health information managers) of the KCCR-affiliated hospitals and non-KCCR-affiliated hospitals for their assistance with data collection, abstraction, and coding. Additionally, we acknowledge the cooperation of the National Health Insurance Service and Statistics Korea for their support with the data. This work was supported by the National Cancer Center research grant (No. 1910131).
The 10 leading types of estimated new cancer cases and deaths by sex in 2020. (A) Estimated new cases. (B) Estimated deaths.
Projected age-specific incidences of major cancers during 2020 in Korea. (A) Men. (B) Women.
Projected age-specific mortality rates of major cancers during 2020 in Korea. (A) Men. (B). Women.
Estimated new cancer cases and deaths by sex during 2020 in Korea
Site | Estimated new cases |
Estimated deaths |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Both sexes | Men | Women | Both sexes | Men | Women | |
All sites | 243,263 | 126,098 | 117,165 | 80,546 | 49,284 | 31,262 |
Lip, oral cavity, and pharynx | 3,915 | 2,813 | 1,102 | 1,222 | 888 | 334 |
Esophagus | 2,555 | 2,317 | 238 | 1,278 | 1,140 | 138 |
Stomach | 27,005 | 17,889 | 9,116 | 6,279 | 4,060 | 2,219 |
Colon and rectum | 25,881 | 14,789 | 11,092 | 8,758 | 4,847 | 3,911 |
Liver |
14,670 | 10,994 | 3,676 | 9,961 | 7,090 | 2,871 |
Gallbladder |
7,999 | 4,244 | 3,755 | 5,235 | 2,809 | 2,426 |
Pancreas | 8,331 | 4,330 | 4,001 | 6,843 | 3,483 | 3,360 |
Larynx | 1,085 | 1,020 | 65 | 266 | 252 | 14 |
Lung |
29,292 | 20,340 | 8,952 | 18,796 | 14,192 | 4,604 |
Breast | 25,549 | 97 | 25,452 | 2,766 | 18 | 2,748 |
Cervix uteri | 3,148 | - | 3,148 | 801 | - | 801 |
Corpus uteri | 3,261 | - | 3,261 | 383 | - | 383 |
Ovary | 2,941 | - | 2,941 | 1,309 | - | 1,309 |
Prostate | 14,561 | 14,561 | - | 2,040 | 2,040 | - |
Testis | 308 | 308 | - | 18 | 18 | - |
Kidney | 5,923 | 4,003 | 1,920 | 1,198 | 813 | 385 |
Bladder | 4,832 | 3,870 | 962 | 1,622 | 1,229 | 393 |
Brain and CNS | 2,122 | 1,140 | 982 | 1,351 | 703 | 648 |
Thyroid | 26,747 | 5,884 | 20,863 | 350 | 100 | 250 |
Hodgkin lymphoma | 342 | 214 | 128 | 72 | 43 | 29 |
Non-Hodgkin lymphoma | 5,484 | 3,161 | 2,323 | 2,145 | 1,230 | 915 |
Multiple myeloma | 1,963 | 1,019 | 944 | 1,153 | 624 | 529 |
Leukemia | 3,766 | 2,167 | 1,599 | 2,041 | 1,187 | 854 |
Other and ill defined | 21,583 | 10,938 | 10,645 | 4,659 | 2,518 | 2,141 |
CNS, central nervous system.
Includes the liver and intrahepatic bile duct,
Includes the gallbladder and other/unspecified parts of the biliary tract,
Includes the lung and bronchus.
Estimated crude and age-standardized cancer incidences by sex during 2020 in Korea
Site | Crude incidence rate per 100,000 |
Age-standardized incidence rate per 100,000 |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Both sexes | Men | Women | Both sexes | Men | Women | |
All sites | 469.2 | 487.5 | 450.9 | 253.7 | 268.7 | 250.9 |
Lip, oral cavity, and pharynx | 7.6 | 10.9 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 2.4 |
Esophagus | 4.9 | 9.0 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 0.4 |
Stomach | 52.1 | 69.2 | 35.1 | 27.1 | 37.2 | 16.5 |
Colon and rectum | 49.9 | 57.2 | 42.7 | 24.2 | 30.5 | 18.3 |
Liver |
28.3 | 42.5 | 14.2 | 14.8 | 22.9 | 6.0 |
Gallbladder |
15.4 | 16.4 | 14.5 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.4 |
Pancreas | 16.1 | 16.7 | 15.4 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 6.2 |
Larynx | 2.1 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 0.1 |
Lung |
56.5 | 78.6 | 34.5 | 25.9 | 39.9 | 15.2 |
Breast | 49.3 | 0.4 | 98.0 | 29.3 | 0.2 | 61.0 |
Cervix uteri | 6.1 | - | 12.1 | 3.5 | - | 7.8 |
Corpus uteri | 6.3 | - | 12.6 | 3.6 | - | 7.6 |
Ovary | 5.7 | - | 11.3 | 3.4 | - | 7.0 |
Prostate | 28.1 | 56.3 | - | 12.4 | 28.7 | - |
Testis | 0.6 | 1.2 | - | 0.6 | 1.2 | - |
Kidney | 11.4 | 15.5 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 4.0 |
Bladder | 9.3 | 15.0 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 7.6 | 1.5 |
Brain and CNS | 4.1 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 |
Thyroid | 51.6 | 22.8 | 80.3 | 36.4 | 16.0 | 57.5 |
Hodgkin lymphoma | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
Non-Hodgkin lymphoma | 10.6 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 5.1 |
Multiple myeloma | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
Leukemia | 7.3 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 4.6 |
Other and ill defined | 41.6 | 42.3 | 41.0 | 22.1 | 24.8 | 19.5 |
CNS, central nervous system.
Age adjusted to the world standard population,
Includes the liver and intrahepatic bile duct,
Includes the gallbladder and other/unspecified parts of the biliary tract,
Includes the lung and bronchus.
Estimated cancer incidence by age group and sex during 2020 in Korea
Rank | Age group (yr) |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|
0-14 | 15-34 | 35-64 | ≥ 65 | |
1 | Leukemia (4.9) | Thyroid (13.7) | Stomach (66.3) | Lung |
2 | Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (3.1) | Leukemia (3.8) | Colon and rectum (48.3) | Prostate (323.0) |
3 | Brain and CNS (2.3) | Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (3.2) | Liver |
Stomach (276.7) |
4 | Kidney (0.4) | Testis (2.7) | Lung |
Colon and rectum (248.7) |
5 | Liver |
Colon and rectum (2.4) | Prostate (27.2) | Liver |
1 | Leukemia (4.0) | Thyroid (50.0) | Breast (164.1) | Colon and rectum (157.3) |
2 | Brain and CNS (2.1) | Breast (12.0) | Thyroid (126.6) | Lung |
3 | Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (1.7) | Cervix uteri (5.5) | Stomach (31.7) | Stomach (112.3) |
4 | Ovary (0.8) | Ovary (3.4) | Colon and rectum (30.9) | Breast (101.3) |
5 | Thyroid (0.7) | Corpus uteri (2.5) | Lung |
Gallbladder |
CNS, central nervous system.
Includes the lung and bronchus,
Includes the liver and intrahepatic bile duct,
Includes the gallbladder and other/unspecified parts of the biliary tract.
Estimated crude and age-standardized cancer mortality rates by sex during 2020 in Korea
Site | Crude mortality rate per 100,000 |
Age-standardized mortality rate per 100,000 |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Both sexes | Men | Women | Both sexes | Men | Women | |
All sites | 155.3 | 190.5 | 120.3 | 69.4 | 98.0 | 48.2 |
Lip, oral cavity, and pharynx | 2.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
Esophagus | 2.5 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 0.2 |
Stomach | 12.1 | 15.7 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 3.1 |
Colon and rectum | 16.9 | 18.7 | 15.1 | 7.2 | 9.6 | 5.2 |
Liver |
19.2 | 27.4 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 14.6 | 4.0 |
Gallbladder |
10.1 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.0 |
Pancreas | 13.2 | 13.5 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.8 |
Larynx | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
Lung |
36.3 | 54.9 | 17.7 | 15.2 | 27.2 | 6.3 |
Breast | 5.3 | 0.1 | 10.6 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 6.1 |
Cervix uteri | 1.5 | - | 3.1 | 0.9 | - | 1.7 |
Corpus uteri | 0.7 | - | 1.5 | 0.4 | - | 0.8 |
Ovary | 2.5 | - | 5.0 | 1.3 | - | 2.5 |
Prostate | 3.9 | 7.9 | - | 1.4 | 3.7 | - |
Testis | 0.0 | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | 0.1 | - |
Kidney | 2.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
Bladder | 3.1 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
Brain and CNS | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
Thyroid | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
Hodgkin lymphoma | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Non-Hodgkin lymphoma | 4.1 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
Multiple myeloma | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
Leukemia | 3.9 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
Other and ill defined | 9.0 | 9.7 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 |
CNS, central nervous system.
Age adjusted to the world standard population,
Includes the liver and intrahepatic bile duct,
Includes the gallbladder and other/unspecified parts of the biliary tract,
Includes the lung and bronchus.