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Head and Neck Cancer
Development and Validation of Web-Based Nomograms to Precisely Predict Survival Outcomes of Non-metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in an Endemic Area
Ji-Jin Yao, Li Lin, Tian-Sheng Gao, Wang-Jian Zhang, Wayne R. Lawrence, Jun Ma, Ying Sun
Cancer Res Treat. 2021;53(3):657-670.   Published online December 7, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2020.899
AbstractAbstract PDFSupplementary MaterialPubReaderePub
Purpose
This study aimed to develop web-based nomograms to precisely predict survival outcomes in patients with non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in an endemic area.
Materials and Methods
A total of 10,126 patients who underwent radical intensity-modulated radiotherapy at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC) from 2009 to 2015 were analyzed. We assigned patients into a training cohort (SYSUCC-A, n=6,751) and an internal validation cohort (SYSUCC-B, n=3,375) based on computer-generated random numbers. Patients collected from Wuzhou Red Cross Hospital (WZRCH) between 2012 and 2015 were used as the independent external validation cohort (WZRCH, n=450). Concordance index (C-index) was used to determine predictive accuracy and discriminative ability for the nomogram. The web-based clinicopathologic prediction models for predicting survival were based on Cox regression.
Results
The C-indexes for SYSUCC-A, SYSUCC-B, and WZRCH cohorts for the established nomograms to predict 3-year overall survival (OS) was 0.736, 0.715, and 0.691. Additionally, C-indexes to predict 3-year distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) was 0.717, 0.706, and 0.686, disease-free survival (DFS) was 0.713, 0.697, and 0.656, local relapse-free survival was 0.695, 0.684, and 0.652, and regional relapse-free survival was 0.672, 0.650, and 0.616. The calibration plots showed great agreement between nomogram-predicted 3-year survival outcomes and actual 3-year survival outcomes. Moreover, C-indexes of the nomograms for OS, DMFS, and DFS were significantly superior than TNM stage (p< 0.001 for all).
Conclusion
These user-friendly nomograms can precisely predict survival endpoints in patients with non-metastatic NPC. They may serve as a useful tool for providing patient counseling and help physicians to make individual follow-up plans.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by  
  • Adverse prognosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma following long-term exposure to multiple air pollutants
    Xiao Lin, Yanan Jin, Jijin Yao, Xurui Sun, Tian Tian, Zhiqiang Li, Shimin Chen, Jie Jiang, Weihua Hu, Yuantao Hao, Liangping Xia, Wangjian Zhang
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  • The development and external validation of a web-based nomogram for predicting overall survival with Ewing sarcoma in children
    Yi Chen, Zirui Liu, Yaobin Wang, Hongwei Zhan, Jinmin Liu, Yongkang Niu, Ao Yang, Fei Teng, Jinfeng Li, Bin Geng, Yayi Xia
    Journal of Children's Orthopaedics.2024; 18(2): 236.     CrossRef
  • The efficacy and safety of adding PD-1 blockade to induction chemotherapy and concurrent chemoradiotherapy (IC-CCRT) for locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma: an observational, propensity score-matched analysis
    Ya-Nan Jin, Meng-Yun Qiang, Ying Wang, Yu-Jing Lin, Ren-Wei Jiang, Wan-Wei Cao, Wang-Jian Zhang, Si-Yang Wang, Hong-Yu Zhang, Ji-Jin Yao
    Cancer Immunology, Immunotherapy.2024;[Epub]     CrossRef
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    Ya-Nan Jin, Qian-Qiong Yang, Zi-Qian Li, Xue-Qing Ou, Wang-Jian Zhang, Tia Marks, Ji-Jin Yao, Liang-Ping Xia
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  • A predictive web-based nomogram for the early death of patients with lung adenocarcinoma and bone metastasis: a population-based study
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  • The Role of Pretreatment 18F-FDG PET/CT for Early Prediction of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Response in Patients with Locoregionally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma
    Jijin Yao, Ying Wang, Yujing Lin, Yingying Yang, Jingjing Wan, Xiaohua Gong, Fanwei Zhang, Wangjian Zhang, Tia Marks, Siyang Wang, Hongjun Jin, Hong Shan
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Immunotherapy
The Pattern of Time to Onset and Resolution of Immune-Related Adverse Events Caused by Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors in Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of 23 Clinical Trials and 8,436 Patients
Si-Qi Tang, Ling-Long Tang, Yan-Ping Mao, Wen-Fei Li, Lei Chen, Yuan Zhang, Ying Guo, Qing Liu, Ying Sun, Cheng Xu, Jun Ma
Cancer Res Treat. 2021;53(2):339-354.   Published online November 6, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2020.790
AbstractAbstract PDFSupplementary MaterialPubReaderePub
Purpose
The occurrence pattern of immune-related adverse events (irAEs) induced by immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) in cancer treatment remains unclear.
Materials and Methods
Phase II-III clinical trials that evaluated ICI-based treatments in cancer and were published between January 2007 and December 2019 were retrieved from public electronic databases. The pooled median time to onset (PMT-O), resolution (PMT-R), and immune-modulation resolution (PMT-IMR) of irAEs were generated using the metamedian package of R software.
Results
Twenty-two eligible studies involving 23 clinical trials and 8,436 patients were included. The PMT-O of all-grade irAEs ranged from 2.2 to 14.8 weeks, with the longest in renal events. The PMT-O of grade ≥ 3 irAEs was significantly longer than that of all-grade irAEs induced by programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) and its ligand 1 (PD-L1) inhibitors (27.5 weeks vs. 8.4 weeks, p < 0.001) and treatment of nivolumab (NIV) plus ipilimumab (IPI) (7.9 weeks vs. 6.0 weeks, p < 0.001). The PMT-R of all-grade irAEs ranged from 0.1 to 54.3 weeks, with the shortest and longest in hypersensitivity/infusion reaction and endocrine events, respectively. The PMT-IMR of grade ≥ 3 irAEs was significantly shorter than that of all-grade irAEs caused by PD-1/PD-L1 blockade (6.9 weeks vs. 40.6 weeks, p=0.002) and NIV+IPI treatment (3.1 weeks vs. 5.9 weeks, p=0.031).
Conclusion
This study revealed the general and specific occurrence pattern of ICI-induced irAEs in pan-cancers, which was deemed to aid the comprehensive understanding, timely detection, and effective management of ICI-induced irAEs.

Citations

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Risk Assessment of Secondary Primary Malignancies in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Big-Data Intelligence Platform-Based Analysis of 6,377 Long-term Survivors from an Endemic Area Treated with Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy during 2003-2013
Lu-Lu Zhang, Guo-Hong Li, Yi-Yang Li, Zhen-Yu Qi, Ai-Hua Lin, Ying Sun
Cancer Res Treat. 2019;51(3):982-991.   Published online October 11, 2018
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2018.298
AbstractAbstract PDFPubReaderePub
Purpose
The incidence, risk factors and survival impact of secondary primary malignancies (SPMs) among survivors of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) treated with definitive intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with or without chemotherapy are poorly characterized.
Methods
and Materials Consecutive patients (n=6,377) from the big-data intelligence platform at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, China (in a high-incidence area) with newly diagnosed non-metastatic pathologically proven non-keratinizing undifferentiated NPC treated with IMRT±chemotherapy between January 2003 and June 2013 were retrospectively analyzed. Cumulative incidence of SPMs was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify potential risk factors for SPMs and assess whether SPMs affect overall survival.
Results
Of the 6,377 patients, 189 (3.0%) suffered SPMs (median follow-up, 62 months). One-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-cumulative risks of SPMs were 0.4%, 0.9%, 1.6%, 2.2%, and 2.6%, respectively. Latency from start of IMRT to SPMs diagnosis was 37 months (range, 6 to 102 months). In patients with SPMs, 14.3% suffered SPMs within 1 year post-IMRT: 1-3 years, 38.1%; 3-5 years, 33.9%; and >5 years, 13.7%. Lung cancer was the most common SPM (50/6,377, 0.78%). Multivariate analysis demonstrated sex (male, 64% increase), age (≥50 years, 68% increase), and smoking history (41% increase) were significant risk factors for SPMs, and SPMs were associated with poorer overall survival.
Conclusion
This large cohort study confirms SPMs a dreadful complication for long-term survivors of NPC treated with IMRT. SPMs negatively impact overall survival in NPC. Close follow-up is recommended for older male survivors with a smoking history.

Citations

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Proposal of a Pretreatment Nomogram for Predicting Local Recurrence after Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy in T4 Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Retrospective Review of 415 Chinese Patients
Lu-Lu Zhang, Yi-Yang Li, Jiang Hu, Guan-Qun Zhou, Lei Chen, Wen-Fei Li, Ai-Hua Lin, Jun Ma, Zhen-Yu Qi, Ying Sun
Cancer Res Treat. 2018;50(4):1084-1095.   Published online November 15, 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2017.359
AbstractAbstract PDFPubReaderePub
Purpose
Local relapse-free survival (LRFS) differs widely among patients with T4 category nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). We aimed to build a nomogram incorporating clinicopathological information to predict LRFS in T4 NPC after definitive intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT).
Materials and Methods
Retrospective study of 415 Chinese patients with non-metastatic T4 NPC treated with definitive IMRT with or without chemotherapy at our cancer center between October 2009 and September 2013. The nomogram for LRFS at 3 and 5 years was generated based on multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression, and validated using bootstrap resampling, assessing discriminative performance using the concordance index (C-index) and determining calibration ability via calibration curves.
Results
Five-year LRFS was 88.8%. We identified and incorporated four independent prognostic factors for LRFS: ethmoid sinus invasion, primary gross tumor volume, age, and pretreatment body mass index. The C-index of the nomogram for local recurrence was 0.732 (95% confidence interval, 0.726 to 0.738), indicating excellent predictive accuracy. The calibration curve revealed excellent agreement between nomogram-predicted and observed LRFS probabilities. Risk subgroups based on total point score cutoff values enabled effective discrimination of LRFS.
Conclusion
This pretreatment nomogram enables clinicians to accurately predict LRFS in T4 NPC after definitive IMRT, and could help to facilitate personalized patient counselling and treatment strategies.

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Neutropenia during the First Cycle of Induction Chemotherapy Is Prognostic for Poor Survival in Locoregionally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Real-World Study in an Endemic Area
Cheng Xu, Shi-Ping Yang, Yuan Zhang, Ling-Long Tang, Guan-Qun Zhou, Xu Liu, Yan-Ping Mao, Rui Guo, Wen-Fei Li, Lei Chen, Ai-Hua Lin, Ying Sun, Jun Ma
Cancer Res Treat. 2018;50(3):777-790.   Published online July 24, 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2017.255
AbstractAbstract PDFSupplementary MaterialPubReaderePub
Purpose
The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of neutropenia during the first cycle of induction chemotherapy (IC-1) on survival in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LANPC).
Materials and Methods
Eligible patients (n=545) with LANPC receiving IC+concurrent chemoradiotherapy were included. Based on nadir neutrophil afterIC-1, all patientswere categorized into three groups: no/grade 1-2/grade 3-4 neutropenia. Five-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were compared between groups and subgroups stratified by IC regimen. We also explored the occurrence of IC-1–induced myelosuppression events and the minimal value of post-treatment neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (post-NLRmin). Univariate/multivariate analyses were performed to investigate the effect of IC-1–induced neutropenia, timing of neutropenia, number of myelosuppression events, and high post-NLRmin on OS/DFS.
Results
Grade 1-2/grade 3-4 neutropeniawere associatedwith poorer OS/DFS than no neutropenia (all p < 0.05); OS/DFS were not significantly different between patients experiencing grade 1-2 vs. 3-4 neutropenia. Neutropenia had no significant effect on OS/DFS in patients receiving docetaxel–cisplatin–5-fluorouracil (TPF). Grade 1-2 (grade 3-4) neutropenia negatively influenced OS/DFS in patients receiving cisplatin–5-fluorouracil (PF) (PF and docetaxel–cisplatin [TP]; all p < 0.05). Neutropenia, two/three myelosuppression events, and high post-NLRmin (≥ 1.33) was most frequent on days 5-10, second and third week of IC-1, respectively. After adjustment for covariates, IC-1–induced neutropenia, two/three myelosuppression events, and post-NLRmin ≥ 1.33were validated as negative predictors of OS/DFS (all p < 0.05); timing of neutropenia had no significant effect.
Conclusion
Occurrence of neutropenia, number of myelosuppression events, and high post-NLRmin during PF/TP IC-1 have prognostic value for poor survival in LANPC.

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A National Study of Survival Trends and Conditional Survival in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: Analysis of the National Population-Based Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results Registry
Jia-Wei Lv, Xiao-Dan Huang, Yu-Pei Chen, Guan-Qun Zhou, Ling-Long Tang, Yan-Ping Mao, Wen-Fei Li, Ai-Hua Lin, Jun Ma, Ying Sun
Cancer Res Treat. 2018;50(2):324-334.   Published online April 19, 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2016.544
AbstractAbstract PDFPubReaderePub
Purpose
Conditional survival (CS) provides important information on survival for a period of time after diagnosis. Currently, information on CS patterns of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is lacking. We aimed to analyze survival rate over time and estimate CS for NPC patients using a national population-based registry.
Materials and Methods
Patients diagnosed with NPC between 1973 and 2007 with at least 5-year follow-up were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology End Results registry. Traditional survival rates and crude CS estimateswere calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Risk-adjusted survival curves were plotted from the proportional hazards model using the correct group prognosis method.
Results
For 7,713 patients analyzed, adjusted baseline 5-year overall survival improved significantly from 36.0% in patients diagnosed in 1973-1979, 41.7% in 1980-1989, 46.6% in 1990- 1999, to 54.7% in 2000-2007 (p < 0.01). CS analysis demonstrated that for every additional year survived, adjusted probability of surviving the next 5 years increased from 66.7% (localized), 54.0% (regional), and 35.3% (distant) at the time of diagnosis, to 83.7% (localized), 75.0% (regional), and 62.2% (distant) for patients who had survived 5 years. Adjusted 5-year CS differed among age, sex, tumor histology, ethnicity, and stage subgroups initially, but converged with time.
Conclusion
Treatment outcomes of NPC patients have greatly improved over the decades. Increases in CS become more prominent in patients with distant disease than in those with localized or regional disease as patients survive longer. CS provides more dynamic prognostic information for patients who have survived a period of time after diagnosis.

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The Prognostic Value of Treatment-Related Lymphopenia in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients
Li-Ting Liu, Qiu-Yan Chen, Lin-Quan Tang, Shan-Shan Guo, Ling Guo, Hao-Yuan Mo, Ming-Yuan Chen, Chong Zhao, Xiang Guo, Chao-Nan Qian, Mu-Sheng Zeng, Jin-Xin Bei, Jing Tan, Shuai Chen, Ming-Huang Hong, Jian-Yong Shao, Ying Sun, Jun Ma, Hai-Qiang Mai
Cancer Res Treat. 2018;50(1):19-29.   Published online April 5, 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2016.595
AbstractAbstract PDFSupplementary MaterialPubReaderePub
Purpose
This study was conducted to evaluate the prognostic value of treatment-related lymphopenia in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC).
Materials and Methods
A total of 413 consecutive stage II-IVb NPC patients treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) were enrolled. The overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) were calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method, and differences were compared using the log-rank test.
Results
A minimum (mini)–absolute lymphocyte counts (ALC) of < 390 cells/μL or ALC after 3 months of CCRT (post3m-ALC) < 705 cells/μL was significantly associated with worse outcome than mini-ALC ≥ 390 cells/μL (OS, p=0.002; PFS, p=0.005; DMFS, p=0.004) or post3m-ALC ≥ 705 cells/μL (OS, p < 0.001; PFS, p < 0.001; DMFS, p=0.001). Patients with lymphopenia (mini-ALC < 390 cells/μL and post3m-ALC < 705 cells/μL) had a worse prognosis than those without lymphopenia (mini-ALC ≥ 390 cells/μL and post3m-ALC ≥ 705 cells/μL) (OS, p < 0.001; PFS, p < 0.001; DMFS, p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that post3m-ALC was an independent prognostic factor for OS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12 to 2.78; p=0.015), PFS (HR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.23 to 2.82; p=0.003), and DMFS (HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.13 to 3.08; p=0.014). Multivariate analysis also revealed that patients with lymphopenia had a high risk of death (HR, 3.79; 95% CI, 1.75 to 8.19; p=0.001), disease progression (HR, 2.93; 95% CI, 1.59 to 5.41; p=0.001), and distant metastasis (HR, 3.89; 95% CI, 1.67 to 9.10; p=0.002). Multivariate analysis performed with time dependent Cox regression demonstrated ALC was an independent prognostic factor for OS (HR, 0.995; 95% CI, 0.991 to 0.999; p=0.025) and PFS (HR, 0.993; 95% CI, 0.988 to 0.998; p=0.006).
Conclusion
Treatment-related lymphopenia was a poor prognostic factor in NPC patients.

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